Mo Nuwwarah
Phil Galfond vs. VeniVidi1993: The Show is Over. The first match of the Galfond Challenge was a rollercoaster for poker fans.At some point, Phil was €900k down and the question was whether he was throwing in the towel against VeniVidi1993. The Galfond Challenge has been suspended by Phil as he is currently -$900,000 after 15 days and 9900 hands of a 25,000 hand challenge vs VeniVedi on Run It O.
Table Of Contents
The Galfond Challenge could not be off to a worse start for its eponym.
- Vitch has been playing poker professionally for more than a decade. He still mostly plays in cash games. During the online poker boom, Vitch was co-owner and a poker instructor at the website DeucesCracked.com. He is married and has one child – a four-year-old daughter.
- The poker player Venividi1993 was first discovered by HighstakesDB on the high stakes tables of PokerStars on Thursday, July 7, 2016. Since then, a total of 42029 poker hands have been tracked with.
After seven sessions of play, Phil Galfond is stuck €379,073.77 to online mystery grinder 'Venividi1993'. They've played 4,760 of a planned 25,000 hands at €100/€200 pot-limit Omaha. That means Galfond has lost at a frightening rate of nearly €80 or four big blinds per hand.
Here's a look at how things have gone so far:
Day 1
Things started promisingly enough for Galfond on Jan. 22 when the two players took seats at two tables on Run It Once Poker. The legend leapt out to an early lead as he won the first stack of the match in a four-bet pot, getting there with top pair and a flush draw against naked aces.
However, Galfond got a taste of the pain to come about half an hour later. He flopped fives full of jacks but didn't have an out in the deck as Venividi had flopped quads. He raked in Galfond's stack on the river.
About two hours in, Venividi exceeded €100,000 on one of the tables after continually siphoning chips from Galfond in pot after pot. Galfond made a bit of a comeback and they took a break then reset the stacks for a final hour.
That hour went poorly for Galfond as he lost several stacks, ending things by bluffing off a stack with a missed combo draw into Venividi's trips and straight blockers.
Hands Played: 655
Results: Venividi1993 +€72,572.68
Full session video
Results: Venividi1993 +€72,572.68
Full session video
Day 2
Galfond began the second session by stacking Venividi again, this time turning top set of aces and holding when Venividi semi-bluffed all in with a pair and a combo draw.
After Venividi evened things out, Galfond took down the biggest pot to date in the session when he found himself with in a four-bet pot, having flopped. Free bingo no deposit. Unfortunately for Galfond, he was up against for top two and diamonds. Galfond managed to find a on the turn and fade the river to rake in €52K.
Venividi battled right back with a €54K pot when he sucked out on Galfond's bare aces with a flush draw, and he took command after their first break going up as high as +€40,000.
Veni Vidi Poker Player
After the final break, Galfond worked his way back into the lead, jumping ahead when his aces held up against the nut wrap on a flop in a four-bet pot.
However, Venividi took down the last big pot of the session when they stuck in nearly all the money preflop, Galfond's against . Venividi flopped a pair and a straight draw on and he turned the to secure the pot with a straight and reduce Galfond to a small win.
Hands Played: 715
Results: Galfond +€2,615.26
Full session video
Results: Galfond +€2,615.26
Full session video
Day 3
Day 3 proved a rough one for Galfond despite it being the shortest yet.
The first hour saw Galfond lose several stacks as Venividi pumped up to nearly €100,000 on one table thanks to rivering set over set and also making a boat against Galfond's aces. Galfond fought back before break when he induced with a small bet on , calling a shove with after timing down. Venividi had the nut blocker and shipped over a stack before break.
Venividi was up a solid but unspectacular €23K just before the second break, but he began his surge there as he got three streets from Galfond for a €54K pot on . Galfond called pot on the river and lost to with an unknown hand.
He continued to run Galfond through the ringer over the final 40 minutes or so and booked a large win. Galfond attributed the loss to playing his C-game while Venividi played his A-game.
Hands Played: 557
Results: Venividi +€84,437.52
Full session video
Results: Venividi +€84,437.52
Full session video
Day 4
Day 4 began well for Galfond as he held a solid profit for most of the first hour or so. In the biggest pot the two played, Venividi had such a strong draw with on that he was even money heading to the river against Galfond's set of fours. A brick river sent a pot worth just shy of €56,000 to Galfond.
However, the two played a pot of almost €60,000 after that. Venividi check-raised nearly all of his stack holding on . Galfond held for queens up and the flush draw and missed. Still, he held a small lead going to break.
Venividi coolered Galfond right away after the break when he rivered a straight versus Galfond's top set of aces. However, Galfond recovered and actually moved up as high as +€53,000 after winning a four-bet pot one one table and stacking Venividi with set over set on the other.
Venividi, though, closed strong over the final 30 minutes and won a series of medium and large pots to book a win of just under a buy-in.
Hands Played: 581
Results: Venividi +€17,544.87
Full session video
Results: Venividi +€17,544.87
Full session video
Day 5
A nightmare session unfolded for Galfond on Day 5 as he nearly doubled his losses despite being substantially stuck already.
Things got off to a rough start for Galfond as he lost several stacks early before the stream cut out, most notably hitting the nut flush on the turn only to have Venividi pick up top boat. Galfond potted the river with on and then called off getting a large price only to be shown .
About two hours in, Galfond lost several stacks in quick session. First, he bluffed off into Venividi's top set on the river, with Venividi picking him off while also holding a blocker to the nut straight. Then, Galfond turned a full house with on . Venividi had for a better boat and stacked his foe again. Galfond found himself in a €200,000 hole.
Galfond mounted a comeback after the break as he collected several stacks of his own. One swingy hand saw Galfond flop top two and a straight draw with on . Venividi held for bottom pair and the nut draw. He got there with an turn for higher two pair, but Galfond made his straight on the river.
However, he faded a bit to the finish once again and wound up staring at nearly eight buy-ins of red ink.
Hands Played: 726
Results: Venividi +€155,063.52
Full session video
Results: Venividi +€155,063.52
Full session video
Day 6
Day 6 saw Galfond take the first huge pot, worth $56,664. The two players had massive hands on the board. Galfond had for both flush draws and the nuts, while Venividi had for two pair and a combo draw. A rolled off to keep Galfond best.
Venividi stacked Galfond right back in a four-bet pot when his aces held against Galfond's queens with a gutter, and Venividi worked his way into a decent lead around €50,000 before the two played an enormous pot about three hours in.
Both players started with more than €40,000 in a three-bet pot as hit the board. Galfond led small with a quarter-pot bet and Venividi called. On the turn, Galfond bet small again with €1,350 into €5,400. Venividi raised to €9,448 and Galfond called, checking the . Venividi bet about half pot with €12,390 and Galfond shoved. Venividi called with for top set and the second nuts on the river, but Galfond had for the nuts. He dragged just under €82K.
The lead swung back to Venividi heading into the final stretch, but this time it was Galfond finishing strong. He held with the nut straight on the turn against top two and a flush draw then coolered Venividi with top set against second set.
After dragging the final pot, a four-bet affair, Galfond wound up even on the day.
Hands Played: 703
Results: Venividi +€13.31
Full session video
Results: Venividi +€13.31
Full session video
Day 7
The longest session yet played came on Thursday, as the two crushers battled across 823 hands.
About an hour in, the two players were close to even when Venividi collected stacks on each table. On one, Galfond bluffed all in on the river with a missed straight draw and a single heart blocker. Venividi picked him off with a ten-high flush. On the other, stacks went in on in a single-raised pot. Each player had a huge hand, but Venividi's got there against top set.
Galfond then dropped another stack in a four-bet pot when his couldn't hold on against , with Venividi locked it up with a turned flush.
Venividi pushed his edge up to €110K heading into the second break. Galfond would slowly recover some in the following hands, but he was unable to land a killshot for a huge swing as Venividi opted to break the tables any time the players hit 200 big blinds effective.
Galfond hit a high point of -€42K but had to settle for medium-sized loss a bit deeper.
Hands Played: 823
Results: Venividi +€52,057.13
Full session video
Results: Venividi +€52,057.13
Full session video
Outlook After First Seven Days
Despite the horrid results, Galfond remained at least a little upbeat.
'Even if I'm significant underdog, it's a pretty improbable run,' he said after the sixth session. 'I shouldn't be losing that much per hand even if I'm outclassed badly.'
He reported on Twitter the chances of such a rough run are in the ballpark of 5% likelihood, showing a graph of the damage thus far:
As requested, graph of the #GalfondChallenge to date with red & blue lines added.
— Phil Galfond (@PhilGalfond) In another tweet, he acknowledged victory is unlikely despite the challenge being less than 20% finished. He said his new goal is simply to win the hands going forward:
Veni Vidi Poker
Another losing day for me in the first #GalfondChallenge.
— Phil Galfond (@PhilGalfond) Tags
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Phil Galfond
The greatest comeback story is one that everybody missed. Remember when the Boston Red Sox came back from down 3-0 against the New York Yankees in the 2004 ALCS? Professional poker player Phil Galfond may have topped it recently after overcoming a €900,000 deficit in a 25,000-hand head-to-head online poker challenge.
After comparing the odds in our database with some of the biggest comebacks across every collegiate and professional league, this is -- at the very least -- one of the most unlikely comebacks I have ever witnessed.
Here's how it happened, and how Galfond had the mental fortitude to pull it off.
Phil Galfond's place in poker history
Veni Vidi Pokerstars
Galfond started taking poker seriously while attending college about 15 years ago. Two $50 online deposits were all it took for him to work his way to being considered one of the greatest No-Limit Texas Hold'em and pot-limit Omaha (PLO) players of all-time. The Marylander was renowned for playing high-stakes cash games on Full Tilt Poker under the moniker 'OMGClayAiken.' In February 2013, Galfond's all-time online earnings on Full Tilt Poker surpassed $10,000,000. He has also won three World Series of Poker bracelets.
An innovator as well, Galfond founded Run It Once Poker with the goal of keeping the online poker dream alive. The company launched publicly in February 2019 to most countries worldwide. A foundational part of his vision was making high-stakes poker battles public for everyone to witness again. Enter the Galfond Challenge.
Galfond set up a series of high-stakes heads-up (one-on-one) matches between himself and various challengers to be streamed live on Twitch (you can check out the remaining schedule here).
The first of these challenges was a 25,000-hand PLO match that began in January against an online regular known as VeniVidi. Whichever player was profitable over the course of the 25,000 hands would be deemed the winner. To add to the intrigue, Phil and VeniVidi agreed to a side bet on top of the actual money won or lost in the 25,000-hand battle. Phil risked €200,000 to VeniVidi's €100,000 that he would end up the profitable player.
Phil started the challenge with just one winning session in the first 15 days of play (roughly 10,000 hands into the challenge) and was down over €900,000 -- nearly $1 million. To put this into context, PokerShares -- a licensed and regulated website outside of the United States that offers people prices to pick winners of poker tournaments and political events -- even stopped offering odds on Phil winning the challenge at this point.
Veni Vidi Poker Online
PokerShares founder Mike McDonald said: 'After Day 13 of the Galfond Challenge, we had him at 25-1 when he was down €750,000. I don't think we even had him available to bet on when he went over the €900,000 mark, but it likely would have been around 35-1 if we did.'
A price of 35-1 implies a 2.8% win probability, or rather that Phil would need to win the challenge 2.8% of the time for a 35-1 wager on him to break even. The fact that PokerShares would consider offering 35-1 means they calculated the true likelihood of Phil winning the challenge to be even less.
I saw an analogy to Phil's win being like coming back from trailing 30-0 in a baseball game. That's too extreme. No team has even won a game by more than 27 runs in the modern era (since 1900); the biggest come-from-behind win is only 12 runs. The Patriots comeback when they trailed the Falcons 28-3 in the third quarter of Super Bowl LI came to mind, but that fell short as betting markets with in-game prices were only offering 11-1 on a New England victory.
Perhaps the most translatable probabilistic analogy in sport comes from that 2004 ALCS. Looking at the prices of the four straight games Boston won individually gives us an expected win probability of roughly 6%. At the time, sportsbooks were offering anywhere from 10-1 to 14-1 on Boston to win the series.
To actually capture a similar likelihood to Galfond's poker challenge comeback, however, we need to dive into the win expectancy for the Red Sox in Game 4 when they trailed the Yankees in the ninth inning. According to Baseball-Reference, Boston's chances of winning the game as Kevin Millar walked to the plate to face Mariano Rivera were 23%. To complete that comeback and subsequently win the next three games and the AL pennant, the win probability goes down to just 2.6% -- right in range with where PokerShares would have lined Galfond when he was down over €900,000.
That's what Phil pulled off. Phil is the 2004 Red Sox in the ninth inning of Game 4 in the ALCS.
The mentality of a comeback
Phil accomplished the seemingly impossible, but it didn't come without a level of focus and confidence that rivals only the most elite competitors in the world. What was his mindset and process like during the €900,000 downswing midmatch? What enabled him to maintain that level of mental aptitude despite losing so regularly prior? Bj bingo hours.
'I went into the match pretty confident, and it was pretty disappointing to start out the way it did,' Galfond told ESPN. 'I took the break to think everything through. There was a little bit of pride involved given that I really felt I could beat him over time, and I wanted to prove that mostly to myself.'
Galfond decided to step away from the match for a couple weeks, a move that cost him a €3,000 penalty per day. Still, he believed it was the right choice, telling ESPN, 'I really did believe that I still had an edge and could win over the 15,000 remaining hands and make a partial comeback.'
Fellow professional poker player Matt Berkey, who suffered a $5 million downswing a few years ago before taking a break to care for his grandmother, addressed Phil's decision to take a break on his recent podcast.
Veni Vidi Poker Identity
'Phil taking time off despite paying the penalty is really critical,' he said. 'We give ourselves way too much credit to be able to battle day in and day out and just shrug off the results, win or lose. It's just not how our mind is oriented, and it's not what motivates human beings. We need positive feedback loops .. and when the game you are playing doesn't offer them, you need to seek them out elsewhere.'
Galfond agreed with these sentiments and told ESPN that he took the break to take some time off and relax with his family for the first few days. But he also thought it was important to play against other opponents in the meantime to reinforce that he could still 'make good decisions and win.'
This is the case for all professional gamblers whether they be sports bettors or poker players, and an important lesson: Galfond was humble enough to recognize that he wasn't above a natural shift in psyche during a substantial downswing and stepped away.
Quien Es Veni Vidi Poker
What's most interesting about the break to me is that he trusted his process wholeheartedly and turned to poker to start feeling confident again -- even amidst a break from poker. Galfond noted, 'So much of where my mindset needed to be was just trying to block everything else out and play each hand individually. Solve the puzzle for that hand, and then move on to the next one.'
He did just that when the challenge against VeniVidi resumed. In arguably the most crucial session of the entire match, he cut into the deficit to the tune of €183,481 in a single day.
I asked if he was scared of the idea of losing more once he returned. He wasn't necessarily entitled to an immediate upswing just because he took time away.
'It's tough to know because my first session went very very well, so it was not something I had to deal with,' he said. 'I didn't ultimately know how I would react. I had played against other players and played well and felt good about that. But I knew it was very possible that if we got back into it and we were right back to where we were with VeniVidi raising every time I bet the river and every time I called he had [the best hand], it wouldn't have taken that much to spiral back into feeling as negatively as I did before taking the break.'
Veni Vidi Poker
Phil rallied with that momentum and stormed all the way back. As the final session and 698 hands approached, he found himself down just €8,171. At the stakes they were playing, the match was virtually tied. We know how it ended.
Now, I'm rooting for a surplus of underdog stories in the upcoming months, maybe years. We need them. There will be people moving mountains creating success stories with likelihoods far less than 2.6%. Far more important ones too. I can't wait to hear them. After all, who doesn't like a good comeback story?